
Channeling Invisible Crowds Could be the Key to Profitable Long-Tail Sales
By Jack Jia
I often ask e-commerce executives to identify who can do the best job selling their products. Their best salespeople? Their best customer? A group of customers? Interestingly, most people know intuitively that the right answer is “C.” Yet, surprisingly few put their innate belief in the wisdom of crowds into practice. We are so trained and comfortable trusting the few: merchandisers, sales geniuses, content editors and a few other experts.
This is particularly important within e-commerce environments that depend on the long tail. Propelled into the popular lexicon more than five years ago by Chris Anderson of WIRED, the “long tail” refers to the concept of selling fewer units of many different special-interest products, as opposed to selling large quantities of a select group of popular products, such as an iPhone or the latest Harry Potter book. It’s incredibly important to help customers find the products they desire the most, even if it’s not popular among a high percentage of the population.
The concept also is applied to online marketing strategies in order to target more relevant content to site visitors. NASA’s website is a good example of one that manages the long tail well. NASA attracts a broad assortment of visitors with varied needs—from students to researchers and space enthusiasts. Yes, a space shuttle launch is an important topic to cover by NASA.gov, but you can get the same information on CNN as well. The real long-tail reason for people to visit NASA sites is to find that unique deep-space picture by Hubble that nobody else has.
In the e-commerce realm, the long tail has led retailers to expand their inventories to incorporate more niche products with higher sale margins and ultimately, to increase overall revenues. Despite this movement, many online retail marketers still push the most popular items on their site visitors because “that’s what users want.” This is a fundamentally flawed way of thinking that causes e-commerce companies to miss out on an opportunity to sell higher margin products–and ones that the customers were actually looking for in the first place.
With this in mind, the key question for any online marketer looking to capitalize on the long tail is, “How do you drive customers to highly specialized and profitable products?”
Said a bit differently, how do you sell a lot more of what you’ve rarely sold before?
Simply offering an expanded array of products may sound like a tempting strategy, but it’s not that easy. Matching the right product to the right shopper is profoundly difficult when you may be dealing with hundreds, if not thousands or even millions of product segments. To compound the situation, these products may be changing at a rapid pace depending on your particular site and inventories, and research indicates that shoppers feel overwhelmed and are less likely to make a purchase when confronted with too many decisions.
The key is to target a smaller set of long-tail products to the right people at precisely the right time. But how? It’s time to start listening to your site’s invisible crowds.
Let the Invisible Crowds Lead the Way
Merchandisers may know company inventory better than anyone else, but the reality is that applying business rules to meet forever-changing long-tail needs is a losing battle. You simply cannot scale to the infinite permutations of product assortments. No matter how good a merchandiser is, he or she will lose their magic touch beyond the top one to five percent of the most popular products, leaving the vast long-tail products hanging high and dry. In response, leading retailers are letting their invisible site visitors self-define the various long-tail product segments and determine what that smaller set of products targeted to each customer should be. By tapping into the wisdom of invisible crowds, retailers can have their customers effectively recommend products to one another; these crowds become their most powerful sales tools.
For example, a major electronics and appliance e-commerce site tapped into the implicit behaviors of its site visitors to discover that they were engaging with red-colored washers and dryers. Sales for these products were low at the time, but they followed the advice of their customers and began promoting the red washers and dryers as “most popular products.” A few months later, these same products indeed became best sellers. In contrast, Best Buy didn’t realize this trend until nine months later by using traditional business intelligence data such as purchase volume.
Compared to solely offline merchants, e-commerce companies are extremely well situated to tap into the long tail because they can uncover the unique, previously hidden desires of their customer base. In this model, retailers are leveraging the implicit, emergent behaviors of visitors who are anonymous and unknown to each other. By understanding these visitors and their interests, retailers can instantly identify the thousands of micro-segments of shoppers who come to their websites, and ultimately match each one with the best and most profitable products available. In doing so, they can deliver a truly adaptive customer experience in the midst of consumers’ increasingly insatiable demand for instant gratification online.
Context Followed by Content
Remember, your visitors are telling you exactly how to grab their attention–if you watch closely enough. Let’s use another example: search. A visitor doesn’t just come to your site out of the ether. Maybe they searched on a particular keyword. Maybe they clicked through on a targeted e-mail.
With this kind of insight about their current state of mind, you can deliver relevant landing pages for each visitor based on what other customers like them searched for in the past.
For example, a customer may use the search phrase “fix a leaky faucet” on Google and land on the Lowe’s Home Improvement site. Her intent is not to look for leaky faucets, of course. Showing her wrenches together with a do-it-yourself book will go a long way to serve her needs. By better understanding user intent, merchants can connect customers to the specific products that like-minded peers found useful. This completely eliminates the need to create custom landing pages for every possible natural or paid keyword–an impossible feat, to say the least. Instead, merchants armed with an intimate knowledge of their site’s invisible crowds can use this collective wisdom to create dynamic recommendations on every page known to convert visitors who have come in through the same query. By doing so, merchants make their sites infinitely more “sticky” and increase sales.
This is unlike recommendations based on “people who bought this also bought that,” because the invisible crowds take into consideration what site visitors need here and now, and what other site visitors like them have actually engaged with, not just purchased. On Amazon.com, for instance, cross-product recommendations have seen plenty of misfires outside of book suggestions. The reason is simple: A book recommendation is most often within the context of the consumer’s individual book preferences. But to always recommend a stroller to an individual who made a past purchase for a friend’s baby shower will almost certainly miss the mark.
This same “context first” methodology is also being applied outside of e-commerce environments at increasing rates, with a range of companies–from telecommunications to high tech to media–all capitalizing on their visitors’ current intent to deliver the most relevant content on their sites, much like the NASA sample given above.
Predicting Future Trends
Leading industry analysts at Gartner and Forrester have been paying attention to this concept. Forrester calls it “customer intelligence” and Gartner has dubbed it “pattern-based strategy.”
According to Gartner, a pattern-based strategy “provides a framework to proactively seek, model and adapt to leading indicators, often termed ‘weak’ signals that form patterns in the marketplace.”
However, most retailers are still looking in the rear-view mirror to determine what products are poised for financial success in the future and should be prominently merchandised on their sites. This is largely because so-called “predictive” applications tend to prioritize the wrong set of indicators, often identifying consumer trends months too late. The reality is that e-commerce transactions actually lag other more relevant indicators about engagement–such as online comparison shopping and mouse hovers–by as much as 90 days.
This is a huge problem, particularly if you are a site with a dynamic inventory. Take an apparel site, for instance. If you are recommending coats in February because that’s what you sold last month, when people are dreaming about spring break on a beach in Bora Bora, you’re going to miss out on all the swimsuits and sunglasses that you could be selling right at that minute. Outside of pure merchandising logic, your site visitors and the invisible crowds could have told you that in real-time. Don’t fixate on transactional data. You have to use the weak signals and collective wisdom of your site visitors to look ahead and effectively market the products on your site for the future.
By observing what products truly give value to customers, e-commerce companies gain an in-depth understanding of community preferences and the thousands of micro-segments that emerge around products and categories without the risk of being misinformed by survey bias or misleading click-based data-gathering systems. With this approach, the silent majority of site visitors are represented instead of ignored. In addition, merchants can better understand how these communities self-organize into like-minded peer groups and better serve these micro-segments with more unique products, making the long tail longer than ever before.
Two years ago, the CEO of USAppliance.com was able to use a “Product Gap” report–which identifies products that are not being promoted to their full potential–to add HDTV and other electronics by following the crowds, completely changing the site’s product mix. By coincidence, the change reduced the impact of the negative appliance growth due to the U.S. real estate downfall. For UrbanOutffiters.com, the emerging Gladiator shoes were prominently promoted due to heavy customer engagements before the actual product sales started to ramp up.
Tapping Into Your Long Tail
The main benefit of leveraging your invisible crowds comes in the form of dynamic product recommendations that have the power to lift conversion rates by 20 to as much as 300 percent. When shoppers arrive at your site, it is possible to instantly determine their intent and display highly targeted product recommendations. The recommendations feel natural because they are drawn from the collective preferences of shoppers that share a similar mindset. Also, the invisible crowd is inherently aware of seasonality and other trends, and naturally promotes those products that are becoming more valuable to your visitors while demoting those that are losing a bit of their sheen.
Today’s online marketers are operating under a different set of rules than those of yesteryear, and those looking to capitalize on the long tail have to be all the more sensitive to the dynamics of marketing and selling niche products. By understanding long-tail economics and harnessing the wisdom of invisible crowds to deliver a more personal and relevant user experience, e-commerce companies can stay competitive and increase visitor-to-buyer conversion rates in ways they could never have imagined before.
Jack Jia is a founder and executive chairman of Baynote, Inc. He is a frequent speaker at major conferences, an in-demand author and has appeared on television programs in several countries. He can be reached at jack@baynote.com.